Expected Goals (xG) Explained

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of the chances a team created — not just the goals they scored.

What xG measures

Every shot gets a value between 0 and 1: the probability an average player scores from that position. A six-yard tap-in might be 0.8 xG; a 30-yard punt 0.03 xG. Sum a team's shots and you get their xG — roughly how many goals their chances "should" have produced.

Why it beats the scoreline

Football is low-scoring and noisy. A side can create five clear chances and lose 1-0 to a deflection. Over many games, xG predicts how good a team really is far better than results alone.

How to use it

• Spot luck. Winning with poor xG rarely lasts; losing with strong xG often turns around.
• Split attack and defence. xG for = chance creation; xG against = chances conceded.

We surface xG on finished matches across nearly every fixture, so you can see whether a result flattered a team. Treat it as one strong signal alongside form and previews — never the whole story.

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