Value bets
A value bet is one where our prediction model rates an outcome more likely than the best available bookmaker odds imply. We show the edge (expected value), our model probability vs the market, and which bookmaker has the best price. Only picks with an edge of at least +5% are listed.
Upcoming value bets
Levantev
Sevilla2026-10-12Sevilla @ 2.881xBet · model 45%+30%edge
Konyasporv
Başakşehir2026-10-11Draw @ 3.651xBet · model 35%+28%edge
Ipswichv
Fulham2026-10-10Draw @ 3.641xBet · model 35%+27%edge
Blackburnv
Cardiff2026-10-10Blackburn @ 2.83Pinnacle · model 45%+27%edge
Aroucav
Estrela2026-10-11Draw @ 3.621xBet · model 35%+27%edge
Boltonv
Stoke City2026-10-10Stoke City @ 2.76Pinnacle · model 45%+24%edge
Crystal Palacev
Nottingham Forest2026-10-11Nottingham Forest @ 2.761xBet · model 45%+24%edge
comov
AS Roma2026-10-11AS Roma @ 2.751xBet · model 45%+24%edge
Gaziantep FKv
Çorum FK2026-10-11Çorum FK @ 2.73Pinnacle · model 45%+23%edge
Prestonv
Millwall2026-10-10Millwall @ 2.70Pinnacle · model 45%+22%edge- Millwallv
Swansea2026-10-13Draw @ 3.45Dafabet · model 35%+21%edge 
Elchev
Celta Vigo2026-10-11Celta Vigo @ 2.681xBet · model 45%+21%edge
Leccev
Bologna2026-10-11Draw @ 3.441xBet · model 35%+20%edge
Stade Brestois 29v
Angers2026-10-10Angers @ 4.00Bet365 · model 30%+20%edge
Rayo Vallecanov
Athletic Club2026-10-10Athletic Club @ 2.66Pinnacle · model 45%+20%edge
Derbyv
Wrexham2026-10-10Wrexham @ 2.64Pinnacle · model 45%+19%edge
Aston Villav
Brentford2026-10-10Brentford @ 2.641xBet · model 45%+19%edge
Le Mansv
Toulouse2026-10-16Draw @ 3.571xBet · model 33%+18%edge- Swanseav
Norwich2026-10-10Swansea @ 2.61Pinnacle · model 45%+17%edge 
Frosinonev
Sassuolo2026-10-16Frosinone @ 2.531xBet · model 45%+14%edge
Track record — settled value picks
40% won (8/20) · avg odds 2.88
SC Bragav
Sporting CP2026-10-09Sporting CP @ 2.39Pinnacle · model 45%+8%WON 1-3
Erzurumspor FKv
Samsunspor2026-09-20Samsunspor @ 2.87Pinnacle · model 45%+29%LOST 1-0
Parmav
Genoa2026-09-20Parma @ 3.25Pinnacle · model 35%+14%WON 2-1
Göztepev
Rizespor2026-09-20Draw @ 3.571xBet · model 35%+25%WON 2-2
Santa ClaravSC Braga2026-09-20Santa Clara @ 3.71Pinnacle · model 35%+30%LOST 0-0
FC Portov
Benfica2026-09-20Benfica @ 2.60Betano · model 45%+17%LOST 3-1
Valenciav
Real Sociedad2026-09-20Real Sociedad @ 2.621xBet · model 45%+18%WON 2-3
Atletico Madridv
Real Madrid2026-09-20Atletico Madrid @ 3.661xBet · model 35%+28%WON 2-1
Kortrijkv
SK Beveren2026-09-20SK Beveren @ 2.65Betano · model 45%+19%LOST 1-0
PortsmouthvBlackburn2026-09-19Draw @ 3.50Bet365 · model 35%+22%WON 2-2
Birminghamv
Middlesbrough2026-09-19Middlesbrough @ 2.51Pinnacle · model 45%+13%LOST 2-2
LincolnvSwansea2026-09-19Swansea @ 2.47Pinnacle · model 45%+11%WON 1-2- Stoke Cityv
Sheffield Utd2026-09-19Stoke City @ 2.34Pinnacle · model 45%+5%WON 2-1 - Wrexhamv
Southampton2026-09-19Southampton @ 2.50Pinnacle · model 45%+13%LOST 2-1 
KocaelisporvGaziantep FK2026-09-19Draw @ 3.10BetVictor · model 35%+8%LOST 2-0- AS Romav
Inter2026-09-19Inter @ 2.661xBet · model 45%+20%LOST 2-2 
VfB Stuttgartv
Borussia Dortmund2026-09-19VfB Stuttgart @ 2.501xBet · model 45%+13%LOST 0-1
Eintracht Frankfurtv
SC Freiburg2026-09-19SC Freiburg @ 2.701xBet · model 45%+22%LOST 2-2
Hamburger SVv
1. FC Köln2026-09-191. FC Köln @ 2.591xBet · model 45%+17%LOST 2-1
Udinesev
Cagliari2026-09-19Draw @ 3.40BetVictor · model 35%+19%LOST 0-1
Track record is illustrative, based on historical model output vs recorded best odds. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Help & resources
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Help & resources