Argentina's World Cup Final Dreams? Probably Exhausted. Back Spain.

So, the big one. New York. Spain, who started this whole charade as 5/4 pre-tournament favourites, now face Argentina at 13/5. The Spanish are 4/6 to grab their second World Cup trophy. Argentina? They're 5/4 for back-to-back titles. Nice sentiment, but sentiment doesn't win World Cups.

Sky Sports' own Lewis Jones insists the road to the final is what truly matters, not some vague idea of 'form.' He's got a point. Argentina's journey has been a brutal grind. They were dragged into extra-time by Cape Verde. Again by Switzerland. Then came the late, desperate comebacks against Egypt and England. Each one a gut punch, each one draining. They've been stretched, pulled, and pushed to their absolute limit. Repeatedly.

Spain's path? A cakewalk by comparison. They've dispatched every single knockout opponent within 90 minutes. Clinical. Efficient. Almost annoyingly so.

That recovery burden? It's the whole ballgame. Jones isn't mincing words; he reckons Argentina are on the verge of "completely blowing a gasket in terms of energy levels" against a Spanish squad obsessed with possession. And why wouldn't they be? History's a cruel mistress: since Euro 2004, the team with an extra day's rest has won 15 of 20 major tournament finals. Guess who's had that luxury here?

If Argentina somehow fall behind early, look out. Their emotional and physical reserves, already threadbare, might just evaporate. Jones points to Inter Milan's Champions League final loss to a fresher PSG side as a stark reminder. This isn't just about tired legs; it's about a shattered psyche.

Expect a brutal, scrappy affair. These aren't exactly polite teams. Spain averages 12.5 fouls per 90 across major tournaments. Argentina's recent opponents? They've been clocking in at 14 fouls per 90. Referee Slavco Vincic is on duty, a man known for his whistle, dishing out 23.6 fouls per game in the Champions League. It's going to be ugly. Lots of contact. Lots of stoppages. All the more reason to think the fresher side will prevail.

Spain on the -1 handicap, meaning they win by two or more goals? That's sitting pretty at 100/30. Given how utterly gassed Argentina might be, it’s not a stretch. In fact, it's starting to look like a bargain.