Championship opening weekend: Wolves favoured, but I'm not buying it

Wolves somehow find themselves second favorites for Championship glory. You'd think they'd earned it, but their opening fixture? It's a minefield. Punters are seriously underestimating the risk here. Listen, Jones Knows over at Sky Sports has crunched the numbers: teams relegated from the Premier League with 25 points or fewer? They've managed to win just 30 per cent of their opening five matches. That's across 50 games. Not a fluke.

Yet, the market has Wolves as 1/2 favorites. That's a whopping 66 per cent implied win probability. Sixty-six per cent! For a team still reeling from relegation, trying to figure out what life's like outside the big show? It's a fantasy. The historical sample, by the way, tells another story: a paltry 2.1 goal average in those games. Expect ugly. Expect scrappy. Expect a team that hasn't found its rhythm, because they haven't.

Other places? Actual value. Take newly-promoted Bolton, for instance. They're sitting pretty at 5/4 to start strong. You see this every season. Fresh faces, riding a wave. They bring momentum. It's not rocket science.

Then there's Millwall. Third place last season didn't just happen; it was earned. Alex Neil's squad? They're no accident. They piled up points because they're organized, pragmatic, and tough as nails. A genuine contender. An away win at Bristol City at 17/10 isn't just attractive, it's screaming value. It fits their no-nonsense style perfectly.

Don't sleep on Derby, either. John Eustace knows how to get a team going. He averages 1.6 points per game over those critical opening five fixtures. Losing just three of 20 matches in that window? That's consistency. His side clawed their way to eighth last season, even with limited possession. It proves his no-fuss strategy works. And it works fast, right out of the gate.

Preston, on the other hand? They're a mess. Ben Whiteman's gone, off to Wrexham. They've bled players from the attack. This isn't just 'disruption'; it's a gaping wound. Four pre-season defeats confirm it. They're struggling. Hard.